| NOTAS: | In our forecast update for FTTx, DSL, and CMTS infrastructure combined, we now expect total vendor revenues for 2012–17 to reach $54.8bn, versus our earlier forecast of $44bn for 2011–16, a revision of 25% upwards. Four major factors are contributing to increased revenues: continued FTTN, FTTC, and FTTB deployments with DSL; improved outlook for CMTS; higher-than-expected FTTH compared to FTTB; and faster replacement of ONTs. However, we now also believe that annual revenues are unlikely to surpass the $10bn mark for any individual year. Spending on FTTx, DSL, and CMTS equipment will reach a high of $9.7bn in 2013 but eventually fall to $8.4bn by 2017. The spread of mobile broadband, wireline broadband price wars, and the decline of legacy technologies are among the factors that will limit further revenue growth during the forecast period. |
